Bayesian Regression Models with RStanARM

TJ Mahr
Sept. 21, 2016

Madison R Users Group

Github repository


August 2015: The "Crisis" in Psychology

Open Science Collaboration (2015) tries to replicate 100 studies published in 3 psychology different journals in 2008.

Scatter plot of original vs replicated effect sizes

  • Boil a study down to 1 test statistic and 1 effect size.
    • Compare replication's test and effect size against original.
  • Approximately 36% of the studies are replicated (same test statistic.
  • On average, effect sizes in replications are half that of the original studies.


We're doomed.

You sit on a throne of lies!

Most findings are probably false.

No, this is business as usual.